Climate projections for the Indiana Dunes region under the highest emission scenario (RCP 8.5) show summer air temperatures are expected to increase from 2 C (2020’s) to 8 C (2080s), and winter air temperatures are expected to increase from 2 C (2020’s) to 5 C (2080s), with an increase of ~30 days in the number of extreme hot days (> 95 F), and 4 to 6 fewer extreme cold days (< 32 F) by 2080. Precipitation is expected to become characterized by fewer, but heavier rain events, with an overall decrease in precipitation during the summer and an increase during the winter months.

 

Lake Michigan has a long record of lake level fluctuations, with two quasi-periodic 30-year and 160-year fluctuations apparent for the last ~4,500 years. There are also indications of long-term lake-level changes that mirror past climate events suggesting that Lake Michigan is influenced by regional weather forces. 

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Phenological mismatches are likely to increase in the region with climate change.  Most birds track photoperiods (day length) to trigger life cycles events, while insect phenology may be linked to air temperature and most vegetation is dependent on soil temperatures. As climate change progresses, these will become increasingly out of phase with each other.